It has agreed key terms for 5.1 MT with the LNG deficit that may build post 2023 boding well LT. Yet, with buyer-seller expectations mismatched and supplies abundant for now, closing firm SPAs may remain challenging or involve concessions. Some 80 MT of new LNG supply is likely in 2018-19E, e.g., with low-cost Qatar also looking to expand by ~30%. Indeed, Shell suggests that offtake contracts are becoming shorter, smaller and riskier. We build a pricing mix that implies $8.5-9.0/mmbtu East Asia DES (or $7.5-8.0 FOB) at our $65/$3.5 Brent /HH LT forecasts (~13.5% slope). This is higher than what Brent/HH curves support with Asia LNG forwards ($6.2-8.5) lower on average too. We assume that 6-7% of LNG is sold domestically at $5 FOB. Pricing is uncertain, though, as is capex. A few years back Anadarko had estimated $12-16 billion for two 5-MT trains predicated on the excellent reservoir and well flow but we model a higher $20 bn that most other partners appear to suggest. At $1575/ tonne, though, even this will be competitive for an integrated LNG project.